With inflation on the rise and spending cooling, all eyes turn to the 2024 holiday season for an idea of consumer behavior. The forecast? Surprisingly strong.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) conducted a new survey of consumer spending approaching the winter holidays. According to their research, consumer spending is expected to reach a record-high average of $902 per person. By examining the way consumers plan to shop and what products they plan to invest in, the NRF paints a picture of behaviors that will influence the market even after the Christmas tree hits the street curb.

A consumer spending average of $902 is the highest recorded amount in the survey’s history, a stunning increase to 2023’s figure. It is $16 higher than the previous record, set in 2019 with an average of $886, and $25 higher than last year’s average spending. The growth is primarily due to shoppers prioritizing spending on their families. Of the $902 shoppers plan to spend, $641 is allotted for gifts for family, friends, and co-workers, an increase of $21 from 2023. The remaining money is projected to be spent on other holiday essentials such as food, decorations, greeting cards, and more.

If the holidays seem to start earlier every year, there’s a reason! Over recent years, nearly half (45%) of holiday shoppers plan to browse and buy holiday items prior to November 1st. Shoppers do this to spread out their budget, avoid the stress of last-minute shopping, dodge crowds, and take advantage of promotions that can’t be missed. Although shoppers get an early start, they still take their time finding the perfect items on their list. Most consumers (62%) anticipate finishing their shopping in December.

With a variety of shopping destinations to choose from, consumers can find exactly what they are looking for at a price that meets their budgets. Online shopping remains the most popular avenue, with 57% of consumers planning on purchasing their holiday must-haves over the internet. Department stores (46%), supermarkets (46%), and discount stores (45%) trail closely behind. This year, research showed a surprising spike in the popularity of thrift store holiday shopping, namely for the 18-24-year-old demographic (20%). This increase is most likely due to this age group’s commitment to saving money and behaving more sustainably. 

This year’s holiday favorites remain largely unchanged from previous years. Roughly half of consumers have gift cards (53%) or clothing/accessories (49%) at the top of their wish lists. This is followed by books and media (28%) and personal care/ beauty items (25%). 

Visit the NRF website for the complete survey data and to discover more sales trends projected for this holiday season.